COP28: 'historic consensus is just the beginning of the road' – 12 QUESTIONS

In 12 questions, we will take you behind the scenes of a pretty successful climate summit in Dubai.

In November 2023, we gave a comprehensive preview of the 28^th climate summit in the United Arab Emirates. Here, through 12 questions, we look back at this crucial summit that offered a last chance to keep the 1.5°C target still within reach. We got input on this from Ulrik Lenaerts (FPS Foreign Affairs), the number 2 of the Belgian climate delegation, for an explanation.

1. What was the atmosphere like during the negotiations at COP28?
2. What are the main results?
3. What about the funding?
4. How did the president – the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – go about things?
5. Can you call the COP28 a successful summit?
6. Will COP28 really herald the end of fossil fuels?
7. Are the participating countries satisfied with the final result?
8. Are there no weaknesses, then?
9. What was the impact of the fossil fuel lobbyists?
10. What is the point of such an annual, large-scale 'circus'?
11. How to proceed?
12. What role did Belgium play during COP28?

1. What was the atmosphere like during the negotiations at COP28?

The negotiations proceeded in a fairly constructive atmosphere. We can rightly speak of an oasis in a harsh international environment that includes wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The success was certainly due to the fact that COP28 was strongly based on science, as well as being well prepared technically. It was also able to rely on broad public support. This was reflected in the abundant presence of stakeholders such as businesses, civil society, young people and indigenous peoples (see also question 8).

Naturally, not everything went smoothly. After all, there are different country groups with a range of interests. But the COP28 presidency managed to de-mine the sensitive issues – for example, by not making them separate agenda items.

2. What are the main results?

Summing up a climate summit is not easy. Over 100 official agenda items were scheduled, not to mention the themed days and initiatives. We will limit ourselves here to two crucial results. For a thorough overview, please refer to the 'UAE Consensus' and the COP28 website.

(a) Loss and damage

On the very first day, the financial arrangements – thoroughly prepared – for loss and damage were approved unamended by consensus. This immediately created an atmosphere of confidence in the negotiations and allowed for a full focus on the Global Stocktake (see next point).

Key elements of the agreement are that the loss and damage fund will be temporarily placed under the World Bank and accessible to all developing countries, but will clearly prioritise the most vulnerable countries. It seeks its funding from all countries that have the resources to do so, as well as private funding and international institutions.

Much willingness was immediately shown to finance the fund. In the meantime, the counter already stands at nearly $800 million. More than half is to come from the EU.

Loss and damage was a crucial demand of the most vulnerable countries. After all, they want to be financially supported because they are already being damaged by natural disasters and a changing environment due to climate disruption now (see also COP28: every fraction of a degree counts!).

(b) Global Stocktake: the beginning of the end of fossil fuels

The Global Stocktake (GST) – and what decisions we should draw from it – took centre stage at COP28. This inventory of where the world stands in its efforts to address climate disruption showed up some serious shortfalls. So some new targets and commitments had to be formulated to make up for the shortfalls and get back on track with the Paris Climate Agreement.

The consensus reached on this contains a great many elements, but two of these stand out. First and foremost, there is a strong text on the necessary energy transition. Thus, it recognises that drastic, rapid and sustained emissions reductions are needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. This amounts to a 43% reduction by 2030, 60% by 2035 and net zero emissions by 2050.

It therefore calls for tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. Global efforts must accelerate to achieve zero-emission energy systems well in advance of or by mid-century.

The text also stresses the need to phase out fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible. It further states very clearly that non-CO2 emissions – in particular methane – must be reduced at an accelerated rate by 2030. The same goes for road transport emissions.

But especially crucial is the phrase about transitioning away from fossil fuel use in energy systems, and doing so in a fair, orderly and equitable manner. For the first time, a de facto phasing out of fossil fuel is envisioned in so many words. Efforts must now be accelerated in this critical decade to achieve zero emissions by 2050, in line with the latest climate science.

A second strong element concerns adaptation to climate disruption. The final text succeeded in finding a wording with clear objectives that sufficiently galvanised the international community into action. In essence, it amounts to raising the ambition in terms of adaptation, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), among other things. There are some steep targets by 2030 on water, food security, biodiversity, health, infrastructure, poverty and cultural heritage, among others.

The adaptation cycle – monitoring and forecasting the impact of climate disruption, early warning, appropriate action, etc. – is being enhanced and should be operational in all countries by 2030.

3. What about the funding?

The completion of a new quantitative target for climate funding will be the key milestone in 2024. Consequently, this section contains few new elements but does lay the groundwork for some more detailed formulations.

The long-promised 100 billion euros per year of climate funding for developing countries will certainly be met in 2025. The text further states that developing countries – based on estimates by the International Energy Agency – will need $5.8 to $5.9 trillion annually, which is to say $5,800 to $5,900 billion, in the period prior to 2030 to implement their national climate plans.

Today, global investment in renewable energy is about $1.8 trillion. That needs to grow as quickly as possible to 4.3 trillion euros annually in the years prior to 2030. From 2030, annual investments of 5 trillion euros are needed to achieve zero emissions by 2050.

Clearly, that is only achievable if the broader financial world – including banks and investors – is brought in line with the climate goals. In any case, the COP28 decisions made it clear that fossil fuels are a finite story and that renewable energy must now be put to full use. That way, COP28 can help direct public and private funding streams and investments towards climate neutrality.

We will still have much to learn from each other about what tools are needed. A reform of the multilateral financial architecture – International Monetary Fund, development banks, etc. – will be needed. It will also be necessary to look towards debt relief and tapping new tax sources (The Polluter Pays Principle).

4. How did the president – the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – go about things?

The Belgian climate delegation and the EU already had a good impression of the UAE presidency during preliminary discussions. Indeed, it had assembled an impressive team and always pushed the 1.5°C target sharply forwards. The fossil fuel phase-out was also not at odds with the UAE's interests. After all, the country realises that it needs to diversify its economy and can no longer use fossil fuels in the long term.

The UAE also cleverly put the organisation of the summit together. Thus, it turned out to be a good idea to go very broad. The presence of numerous players, such as businesses and NGOs, provided a powerful impetus for achieving some breakthroughs. Linking intergovernmental negotiations to thematic days also proved to be a good find. This allowed various coalitions of the willing to emerge on the separate issues - statements on agriculture and food security, health, hydrogen, nature and people, etc. – without the negotiations themselves reaching a deadlock.

Only towards the end did the presidency get a little overconfident by proposing a woolly final text with some vague wording. However, after fierce headwinds from the High Ambition Coalition (see Question 7), it set off on a strong final sprint. After an evening and a night of bilateral consultations, it did manage to offer a satisfactory text.

5. Can you call the COP28 a successful summit?

The COP28 was certainly successful. The final text clearly formulates how we need to move away from fossil fuel use with an endpoint in 2050, consistent with scientific findings and well aware that, in this critical decade, an acceleration is needed.

But, as Sultan Al Jaber also said afterwards: 'An agreement is only as strong as its implementation. This historic consensus is just the beginning of the road.' In other words, it now comes down to putting the decisions made into practice. The litmus test is the actual decrease in greenhouse gases.

In any case, the international community appears motivated to make the commitments taken. Rich countries will assist developing countries in achieving their national plans and they will provide additional resources for them. And institutions such as the International Energy Agency will be given a greater role.

6. Will COP28 really herald the end of fossil fuels?

It seems a taboo was broken. Until now, people had always talked about the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions – there was hardly any mention of the necessary energy transition. In the final text, for the first time, that energy transition was explicitly stated with some clear objectives.

New language is gradually coming into vogue. Previously, for example, people mainly talked about the need for electric cars, but today they are also talking about the need to phase out fossil fuel cars.

The international community's consensus on fossil fuels also sends a clear message to oil-producing countries: fossil energy is a finite story! They will need to adapt to that.

Of course, the implementation of the decisions has yet to take place at the national level, in the reformulation of national climate plans. That promises to be quite a discussion.

7. Are the participating countries satisfied with the final result?

They certainly are. There was little more discussion about the final text presented on the last morning. Only the small island states were still expressing concerns at the end about possible loopholes in the text, such as the fact that there were no interim targets for phasing out fossil fuels. Yet they too did accept the final text.

In the final sprint, the High Ambition Coalition played a distinguished role. Indeed, it absolutely could not accept the initially woolly wording. That coalition consisted of no fewer than 130 countries: in addition to the EU, the other developed countries (the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, Norway, Switzerland), the small island states, the least developed countries and a number of Latin American countries (Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, etc.). Brazil played an active role as a bridgehead with the group of emerging economies that were more on the brakes. A final text was thus able to be formulated to which each country could agree.

8. Are there no weaknesses, then?

The phrase about 'transitioning away from fossil fuels' does mention 2050 as the end point, but no intermediate goals. There is also a stand-alone section on the use of transition fuels such as gas. It contains no restrictive framing and thus can be read independently of what was decided in the other objectives.

We assume that these weaknesses are less essential and can be accommodated by a scrupulous implementation of the agreements made in Dubai. The most important thing now is to reformulate and implement ambitious national climate plans.

9. What was the impact of the fossil fuel lobbyists?

Indeed, there was much talk in the press about the massive presence of fossil energy lobbyists. In the midst of negotiations, a leaked letter from OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais caused quite a stir. Yet our climate negotiator – who was very closely involved in every facet of the GST – was never approached by a representative of the fossil industry. Neither did this appear to be the case with other negotiators.

What is true is that this COP was very business-oriented: all the players were there! After all, these are the businesses that will need to make the transition to renewable energy. They were present to make contacts and show what they had to offer. There was also a representation from Belgian businesses including DEME, Fluxys, De Nul, Cockerill and so on.

10. What is the point of such an annual, large-scale 'circus'?

It is true that there was massive attendance at COP28. Besides the government climate negotiators, a large group of stakeholders too: businesses, NGOs, indigenous peoples, young people, sub-national players such as mayors and local leaders and so on.

First of all, it is absolutely essential that all countries address this gigantic problem together in a multilateral context. This is the only way to truly align the countries and spur them into action. If only to get sufficient assurance that the other countries are also making enough efforts.

But the wide circle around it of national pavilions and workshops also has its uses! In fact, a climate summit has become a veritable world exhibition, where all the players involved in energy transition and climate policy can meet and network. With, as mentioned earlier, an increasing role for business.

That wide circle, while having little direct impact on the negotiations themselves, undeniably creates strong dynamic. The large scale provides a strong impetus to achieve breakthroughs.

11. How to proceed?

In 2024, it will come down to actually implementing the decisions made. This means that national climate plans – known as the Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs – must be revised upwards to make the 1.5°C target possible.

The EU plans to propose new targets by 2040 in February 2024. Rich countries will assist poorer countries in figuring out and implementing their national plans. Everything needs to be completed by 2025, at COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024 will mainly set new quantitative targets for climate funding.

12. What role did Belgium play during COP28?

As usual, the Belgian climate delegation did its best to secure the most ambitious result possible. The team of experienced negotiators spent long hours within a seasoned EU team studying and fine-tuning the text proposals and amendments before them.

The Ministers present highlighted Belgium's assets. For example, during his intervention, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo emphasised the crucial role of energy transition to close the gap with the Paris Climate Agreement. He highlighted Belgium's role in offshore wind energy (North Sea Conference) and hydrogen (hub for the EU), as well as its willingness to roll out partnerships with the South. Climate Minister Zakia Khattabi led the negotiations on behalf of the EU for the 'fair transition' theme.

Belgian businesses (see Question 9) were present in large numbers to position themselves in the climate and energy transition and make contacts. And finally, the Belgian Embassy in Abu Dhabi provided some fantastic support that allowed the Belgian team to work in the best conditions, and in a very positive 'spirit'.