COP30 in Belém: Brazil turns it into the COP of truth

• The inauguration of American President Trump led to an aggressive anti-climate policy in the United States.
• Nevertheless, its impact on other countries appears to be rather limited. The atmosphere at the UN climate negotiations remains constructive.
• The Brazilian presidency aims to turn COP30 in Belém into the COP of truth. It is approaching the organisation with great thoroughness, under the slogan Global Mutirão: collective efforts.
• The key items on the agenda are: (1) the submission of revised national climate plans, (2) adaptation, (3) closing the climate finance gap, and (4) ensuring a just transition.
• Furthermore, Brazil is focusing on tropical forests with a Tropical Forest Forever Facility.
• Belgium will be represented by a 31-member delegation, including two ministers.

On 5 November 2025, the Council of EU Environment Ministers decided to stick to the 90% reduction target by 2040. However, it will be possible to achieve 5% of the necessary reduction - instead of the 3% proposed by the European Commission - through high-quality carbon credits realized outside the EU. Domestic permanent carbon removals are also taken into account more.

The compromise also builds in more flexibility within and between sectors and instruments. For example, member states can compensate for deficits in one sector with surpluses from other sectors. Finally, a review clause allows for better monitoring of the impact on competitiveness and purchasing power.

1. Revised national climate plans

Countries are expected to submit their revised – and more ambitious – nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Those are new plans to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. The Paris Agreement stipulates that these plans must be reviewed every five years.

So far, only 30 countries have submitted their new plans, but many more are expected to follow. The EU, for its part, has also experienced delays (see text). Based on the submitted plans, calculations will be made to determine the level of global warming we are heading towards. Staying within the 1.5°C limit is clearly out of reach, but Brazil wants to explore – based on reports from the international climate panel IPCC – what it would take to still reach the 1.5°C target.

2. Adaptation

The decisions made at COP28 in Dubai regarding adaptation – adjusting to the consequences of climate disruption – require further elaboration. This includes thematic objectives: how we will adapt ecosystems, water supply, food security, biodiversity, health, infrastructure, social equality, and poverty reduction. To measure progress on all these objectives, COP30 aims to develop a maximum of 100 indicators.

Adaptation is a major priority for southern countries. However, they do not want to be held accountable if they fail to meet the objectives, as they have limited control over the impact of their adaptation measures and often lack sufficient financial resources. Many are therefore calling for an indicator on funding: to what extent is climate finance being made available? Wealthy countries, on the other hand, are somewhat reluctant to engage in discussions on adaptation financing. They already agreed last year to provide 300 billion dollars in climate finance by 2035 and do not wish to reopen this debate.

3. Bridging the climate finance gap

At COP29, donor countries promised to provide at least 300 billion dollars in climate finance by 2035, drawing from various sources: public funds, multilateral development banks, mobilised private finance, and more. However, the actual need amounts to 1.3 trillion dollars. COP30 will explore how this gap can be bridged.

Ideas already exist, of course, such as innovative financing. France, for example, proposes a global solidarity levy, potentially on international transport. It will also be crucial to create capital markets in southern countries to attract investment. Yet companies tend to be quite risk-averse when it comes to investing there. We need to find a solution for that.

Furthermore, ecosystems should be developed that encourage companies to invest in renewable energy rather than fossil fuels. The EU believes we should exchange experiences — best practices — on what works and what doesn’t.

Domestic resources — taxes and such — will also be an important part of the financing package. But for Arab and some African countries, this remains a sensitive issue.

4. Just transition

The transition towards a low-carbon society – based, among other things, on renewable energy – inevitably involves the phasing out of sectors that heavily rely on fossil fuels. To ensure this transition is fair, people who lose their jobs must be adequately supported.

There is a clash of two opposing views on this topic.

The West mainly sees it as a domestic issue that can be addressed by diversifying the economy and providing social safety nets. Sharing information on how different countries tackle this is also very useful. Trade unions and civil society emphasise the importance of quality jobs and opportunities for participation.

The South mainly sees it as a North-South issue. They believe they lack sufficient resources for the transition due to investment risk aversion. They also view measures like CBAM – a carbon tax, see text – as a trade barrier they do not agree with. For instance, CBAM would raise the cost of importing electric vehicles, batteries, and steel from China.

Just transition – including its trade dimension – is a hot topic. Brazil is expected to engage in a vigorous debate on this matter.

5. Global Stocktake

The Global Stocktake – which was central to COP28 in Dubai – is a review of how far the world has come in its efforts to tackle climate disruption. In other words, it lays bare our shortcomings.

The EU calls for robust follow-up on the adjustments needed to get back on track. Other countries, however, are dragging their heels and pointing to the need for funding.

6. Tropical forests

Brazil wants to place strong emphasis on the role of ecosystems, particularly tropical forests. In the margin of the General Assembly in New York, the Amazonian country launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a fund supported by both public (20%) and private (80%) resources. Its aim is to support countries that protect their forests. This includes the Amazon, the Atlantic rainforest, and the Congo and Mekong basins. Belgium wants to claim a significant position for the Congolese forests.

What is original about the TFFF is that it looks at a country’s performance. Satellites are used to establish a benchmark after which forest cover is monitored. Only if forest cover remains stable, increases, or declines only slightly, does the country in question qualify for financial support.

7. Synergy with other conventions

Brazil aims for maximum synergy with other UN conventions on biodiversity and desertification. Measures from the various conventions can reinforce each other, such as the protection of tropical forests.

8. Action agenda items

Each COP traditionally has many action agenda items: side issues that stakeholders want to highlight. These include the phasing out of fossil fuels, climate and health, tripling renewable energy, and so on.

The Brazilian presidency wants to curb the proliferation of action items. It counted a staggering 300 or so items, of which roughly 100 were actually active. These 100 have been grouped into six clusters: (1) energy and transport, (2) biodiversity, oceans and forests, (3) agriculture and food security, (4) resilience and cities, (5) social development, and (6) the overarching enabling factors.

Within these six clusters, Brazil identified 30 objectives: land restoration, sustainable agriculture, low-carbon technologies, transition away from fossil fuels, and so on. For each of these objectives, it plans to bring all relevant actors together during the COP to develop concrete solutions. It also appointed seven foreign and 22 Brazilian Special Envoys to make the discussions more effective.